India’s Demography at 2040: Planning Public Good Provision for the 21st Century
Source: PIB, Economic Survey 2018-19
- Sharp slowdown in population growth expected in next 2 decades. Most of India to enjoy demographic dividend while some states will transition to ageing societies by 2030s.
- National Total Fertility Rate expected to be below replacement rate by 2021.
- Working age population to grow by roughly 9.7mn per year during 2021-31 and 4.2mn per year during 2031-41.
- Significant decline to be witnessed in elementary school-going children (5-14 age group) over the next two decades.
- States need to consolidate/merge schools to make them viable rather than build new ones.
Policy makers need to prepare for ageing by investing in health care and by increasing the retirement age in a phased manner
