Youth in India 2022 report

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Key findings of the report-

Following are some of the findings of the report:

• India’s favourable demographic dividend is at an inflection point of sorts, with the population share of the youth starting to taper off even as the share of the elderly is expected to steadily surge during 2021-2036. 
• The states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which experienced a rise in proportion of youth population to total population till 2021, are expected to see a decline from hereon.

• These two states, along with Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, are projected to have over half (52 per cent) of the country’s youth.

• States such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh are projected to see a higher elderly population than the youth by 2036.

• Citing the findings from the Report of Technical Group on Population Projections, 2020, constituted by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, this report said youth in the age group of 15-29 years comprise 27.2 per cent of the population for 2021, which is expected to decrease to 22.7 by 2036.
• The proportion of the population aged under 15 years is projected to decline, the elderly in the population is expected to increase. 
• The total youth population increased from 222.7 million in 1991 to 333.4 million in 2011 and is projected to reach 371.4 million by 2021 and, thereafter, decrease to 345.5 million by 2036.
• For Kerala, which saw the youth population peak earlier than other states, the elderly population share in total population has been projected at 16.5 per cent compared with 22.1 per cent of youth population in 2021. 
• The share of elderly in total population (22.8 per cent) in Kerala is then projected to cross the share of youth (19.2 per cent) by 2036. 
• Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh are also projected to experience elderly population more than the youth by 2036.
• A greater proportion of youth at present will result in a greater proportion of elderly in the population in future. This will create a demand for better healthcare facilities and development of welfare schemes/programmes for elderly people.
• Proportion of youth to the total population had increased from 26.6 per cent in 1991 to 27.9 per cent in 2016 and then projected to start a downward trend and to reach 22.7 per cent by year 2036. 
• On the contrary, the proportion of elderly population to the total population has increased from 6.8 per cent in 1991 to 9.2 per cent in 2016 and is projected to reach 14.9 per cent in 2036.

United Nations’ World Population Prospects (WPP)-2022-

• As per the 2022 edition of the United Nations’ World Population Prospects (WPP), released in July, India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. 
• The report pointed out that a sustained drop in fertility has led to an increased concentration of the population at working ages (between 25 and 64 years) and this shift in the age distribution provides a time-bound opportunity for accelerated economic growth known as the “demographic dividend”.
• The UN report, however, also noted that the population of older persons is increasing both in numbers and as a share of the total, with the share of the global population aged 65 years or above projected to rise from 10 per cent in 2022 to 16 per cent in 2050, warning countries with ageing populations to take steps to adapt public programmes to the growing proportion of older persons, including by improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems and by establishing universal health care and long-term care systems.

Further reading: https://journalsofindia.com/united-nations-world-population-prospects-wpp/

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