Ecological threat report 2021

Make PDF

In news-The Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP) has released the Ecological threat report 2021: understanding ecological threats, resilience and peace, recently.

About the report 

• For its second Ecological Threat Report, the IEP assessed 178 independent states and territories to find those most prone to ecological-threat-related conflict. 
• The report looked at food risk, water risk, rapid population growth, temperature anomalies and natural disasters.
• It combined the data from above mentioned aspects with national measures of socioeconomic resilience such as well-functioning governments, strong business environments and acceptance of other people’s rights among others. 
• The 11 countries with the worst ETR score are Afghanistan, Niger, Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi, Guatemala, Mozambique, Pakistan, Angola and Yemen.
• The report recommended a policy to combine health, food, water, refugee relief, finance, agricultural and business development into one integrated agency in high-risk areas and empowering local communities.

Key findings

Ecological threat and migration:

• As per the report, around 1.26 billion people across 30 countries are suffering from both extreme ecological risk and low levels of resilience.
• These countries are least likely to be able to mitigate and adapt to new ecological threats, which is likely to cause mass displacement.
• The number of people displaced by conflict has been steadily rising with 23.1 million people from hotspot countries living outside their home country in 2020. 
• Europe was hosting the largest number of displaced people from hotspot countries, at 6.6 million. 
• As many as 13 faced extremely high and 34 others faced high ecological threats. 
• The most vulnerable countries are clustered in the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. 
• Ecological degradation and conflict work in a vicious circle, whereby one  degradation of resources leads to conflict and vice versa. 
• Climate change will have an amplifying effect, causing further ecological degradation and pushing some countries through violent tipping points.

Food Insecurity 

• Since 2014, the number of people without access to adequate food globally has risen every year, increasing by 44%. 
• Increases in food insecurity are associated with deteriorations in peace.
• By 2050, the global demand for food is expected to increase by 50%.
• As a region, south Asia is the worst-placed, with water and food risks driving the average ETR score in the region. 
• In sub-Saharan Africa, the score is influenced by high levels of population growth, which will place increased pressure on existing food and water scarcity. 
• The region has the highest proportion (66 per cent) of its population suffering from food insecurity, highlighting its severity of water and food risks. 

Water stress

• • The report reveals that by 2040 over 5.4 billion people will live in countries facing extreme water stress. 

• Lebanon and Jordan are the countries most at risk.
• Sub-Saharan Africa has the most countries with the lowest levels of social resilience combined with the highest population growth.
• 70% of its population suffer from inadequate access to safely managed water.

Other key findings of the report are:

• Eleven of 15 countries with the worst environmental threat scores are currently classified as being in conflict. 
• Another four are classified as at high risk of substantial falls in peace, highlighting the relationship between resource degradation and conflict
• From 1990 to 2020, a total of 10,320 natural disasters occurred globally. 
• Flooding has been the most common natural disasters, accounting for 42 per cent of the total disaster count.
• In 2020, 177 countries and territories recorded a warmer average temperature compared to their historical average temperatures.
• Eleven countries are projected to double their population between 2021 and 2050. They are all in sub-Saharan Africa. 
• The three countries with the largest projected increases in population are Niger, Angola and Somalia, where the populations will increase by 161, 128 and 113 per cent, respectively.

Make PDF