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Home Science & Tech

Monsoon Forecast Models

January 20, 2021
in Science & Tech
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Monsoon Forecast Models
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Monsoon is referred to as the lifeline of India. It greatly influences the agriculture yield, economy, water resources, power generation and ecosystem.The accurate prediction of monsoon rainfall is a basic need for India but remains a challenge over the decades.

In news: India Meteorological Department (IMD) may introduce new monsoon models
Placing it in syllabus: Science & Technology

Dimensions:

  • Monsoon forecast models
  • LPA method
  • Indian monsoon mission
  • Megha tropique satellite
  • New models

Content

Monsoon Forecast Models

  • Monsoon has always been critical for India’s economy. 
  • If variations in monsoon rainfall are known well in advance, it would be possible to reduce the diverse impacts related to excess or deficient rainfall. 
  • A reliable monsoon forecast with sufficient lead time is essential for policy makers and farmers for planning and sowing of crops, as well as making long-lead plans for the future.
  • There are several methods to assess the likelihood of Monsoon  rainfall.
  • Currently, IMD relies on an ensemble model for forecasting monsoon. This traditional model uses a statistical technique.
  • It uses an average of 6 meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure.
  • These meteorological values are traditionally derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.
  • This model equates relationships of physical parameters, such as for instance sea surface temperatures, snowfall, the temperature of landmass etc with the actual observed rainfall in the past.
  • India currently operates a global model on a 12-km grid size — that is,  information is gathered every 12 km. This is the highest resolution ensemble system, and at present India has the best model in the world. 
  • However, this traditional approach has failed to predict monsoon recent decades (for instance in 2002 and 2004) leading meteorologists to call for a new, modern forecasting system.

Dynamical Monsoon Model

  • The dynamical monsoon model simulates the weather on powerful computers (supercomputers) and extrapolates it over particular timeframes.
  • This modern forecasting model is being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.
  • The dynamical monsoon model is also called the Coupled Forecast System version 2. 
  • So far it has achieved only 60% accuracy in forecasting the monsoon.
  • This method is widely used in forecasting weather over a few days. But using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.

LPA Method

  • LPA of rainfall is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) average over a long period like 30years, 50-years etc.
  • It acts as a benchmark while forecasting the quantitative rainfall for that region for a specific month or season. 
  • For example, LPA of south west monsoon rainfall over Kerala for the months June, July, August and September are 556mm, 659mm, 427mm and 252mm respectively. 
  • Current LPA of all India south west monsoon rainfall based on the average rainfall over the period 1961 -2010 is 880.6mm.

Indian Monsoon Mission (NMM): 

  • The accurate prediction of monsoon rainfall remained a challenge for decades. The conventional forecast in use so far is based on the statistical approach and is low skilled in forecasting rainfall anomalies. 
  • Several new approaches (high resolution, super parameterizations, data assimilation etc.) developed in recent times have shown that the variability in tropics can be reasonably resolved
  • The National Monsoon Mission (NMM) was envisaged in 2012 by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) to develop a dynamical coupled prediction system specially suited for the Indian region.
  • The main objectives of NMM are to improve Seasonal and Intra-seasonal Monsoon Forecast and to improve Medium Range Forecast.

To achieve its objectives the NMM envisages to:

  • Build a working partnership between the academic research and development organisations and the operational agency to improve the monsoon forecast skill;
  • Set up a dynamical modelling framework for improving prediction skill of seasonal and extended range prediction system, and short and medium range prediction system; and,
  • Set up the infrastructure and train manpower required to improve the prediction skill in all time scales.

Megha-Tropiques satellite: 

  • The main objective of the Megha-Tropiques mission is to study the convective systems that influence the tropical weather and climate.
  • The satellite was launched in 2011 into a non-sun synchronous orbit (Low Earth Orbit), unlike other IRS spacecraft. 
  • Megha-Tropiques provides scientific data on the contribution of the water cycle to the tropical atmosphere, with information on condensed water in clouds, water vapour in the atmosphere, precipitation, and evaporation.
  • The Megha-Tropiques is a unique satellite for climate research that also aids scientists seeking to refine prediction models.
  • It is operated as part of a joint programme between the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and France′s Centre National d′Etudes Spaciales (CNES). 
  • This Megha-Tropiques satellite carries four payloads namely, MADRAS-a microwave imager, SAPHIR-scanning radiometer instrument, SCARAB-scanner for radiative budget and GPS occultation receiver for atmospheric studies.

New models

  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) may introduce new monsoon models this year to better forecast changes in rainfall. 
  • Three different models would be tested this year. Two of them were dynamical models and one a statistical model. 

The three models under consideration are: 

  • 12 global circulation models (dynamical) : The outputs these models would be combined into a single one
  •  a model that gauges rainfall based on the sea surface temperature in the tropics (developed by Prof. Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland, U.S.) and 
  • the statistical model based on climate variables observed during the pre-monsoon. 

All of them are ‘ensembles’ meaning smaller models are combined to arrive at an average value.

Mould your thought: Why do we need a Monsoon forecast? Discuss different monsoon forecast Models used in India.
Approach to the answer:

  • Introduction 
  • Uses of Monsoon Forecast 
  • Mention different forecast models used by IMD
  • Mention their strengths and weaknesses
  • Conclusion
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Source: The Hindu, Indian Express
Tags: GS-3Mains

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